We make decisions throughout the day … every day … until our last day. Right now, you decided to read this sentence. You could have chosen to slam the computer shut, hop on a cross-country train, and join a traveling carnival. Here you are again. Will you read this sentence?
We are the product of our decisions. There is no easier way to describe where we are in life, both physically and metaphysically. Given how much practice we have in making decisions, you’d think we’d be pretty good at it. If instead of making decisions all day, you juggled all day, eventually you would be a world-class juggler. But are you a world-class decision maker? What is a world-class decision maker?
Our society looks at results and generally ignores the process.
Consider a game of blackjack (twenty-one). You receive a king and a queen (20). The dealer shows a Jack. What is the correct decision? Suppose you choose to “hit” and are dealt an Ace (21). The dealer had a Queen under that Jack (20). You win! But did you make the right decision?
Does the thought process you use to answer this question matter? If asked, “Why did you choose to take another card?” Consider the following two responses:
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I was counting cards. Based on the cards that remain unresolved, he had a 34% chance of drawing an ace and the dealer had a 70% chance of having a ten, a face card, or an ace. Holding gave me a 30% chance of winning, hitting gave me a 34% chance of winning. I choose the option with the highest percentage.
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I do not know. He was just sure he was going to get an Ace.
Let’s face it, we know people who live their lives using the logic of Answer No. 2 and some always seem to be victorious. We also know people who use the logic in Answer # 1 and some always seem to fall short.
Suppose your organization is on the brink of a massive project. The results will impact the future of your organization for decades. You must select the project manager and have two options: Jim or Lisa. Jim’s last two projects were wildly successful (under budget and ahead of schedule), but he is an Answer # 2 person, from start to finish. Lisa’s last two projects were abysmal (well over budget and behind schedule), but she has an extraordinarily talented mind of the type Answer # 1. Lisa’s leadership, communication and organization skills are far superior to those of her. from Jim. Who do you choose to lead the project?
There are more variables to consider and real life is always more nuanced than a hypothetical scenario in a blog post, but most organizations have a mindset that would lead to selecting Jim. “He must be doing something right. Look at his results!”
I’m about to oversimplify the scenario, but I’m sure the resulting point will resonate.
Isn’t this a lot like betting on the roll of the dice? So far, you have made four bets:
Bet on 2 (snake eyes – “Jim”) – you won
Bet on 7 (best chance – “Lisa”) – lost
Bet on 2 (snake eyes) – you won
Bet on 7 (best chance) – lost
Now, you must now bet for the fifth time and the stakes are higher. You can only select 2 or 7, which one do you select?
I have oversimplified the discussion. There are a myriad of real-world decisions and actions that we could take to increase the likelihood of project success. For example, you’re probably interested in why Lisa’s projects yielded disastrous results and why Jim’s were successful. However, few could argue that organizations often place an overemphasis on past results when making decisions.
There are several reasons why organizational leaders make this “mistake” and several actions they can take to increase their decision-making skills while still striving for results-oriented behavior.
Let’s start with the “why”. Consider the following three human weaknesses.
- We draw conclusions based on patterns derived from insufficient data. I will use my own weaknesses to highlight this example. I wrote an article hoping to get it published. After the third rejection letter, my instinct was to conclude that the article was not good enough. Conservatively, there are 200 posts that you could provide this article to for publishing consideration. Is my conclusion rational? Of course not. Note that my conclusion is not necessarily wrong, but it is not rational because I do not have enough data to support my conclusion.
- We see what we hope to see. Worse still, sometimes we see what we want to see. Suppose you hired two different consultants who specialize in operational excellence. Both consultants have excellent reputations and exceptional pedigree. However, suppose you told each consultant a different story. With the first consultant, you share your concern that your corporate culture is badly damaged. For the second consultant, you share that you believe that your corporate culture is as strong as ever, but that you are concerned about how to maintain that strong culture. You provide each consultant with the same information with the same access to the company. Request a report from each on the health of the company’s culture of operational excellence. How do you think those reports will differ?
- We are afraid of making mistakes and being alone. That is why financial bubbles are created. There is a saying about decision makers that is absolutely true and also impossible. “Most decision makers will wait for most decision makers to do something before doing it.” Before the financial disaster of 2009, there was ample information available to conclude that the housing market had gotten out of control. However, the world’s “wisest” investors continued to invest in residential real estate. Why? Presumably, because most of the other “wiser” investors continued to do so as well. We are capable of valuing the opinions of others above logic and reason.
Fortunately, we can overcome these weaknesses. Well, we can probably never “get over” them because we are, like it or not, fallible human beings. However, you cannot fight an invisible enemy. Identifying our innate weaknesses in decision making is the first step to overcome them.
Download my mini-Ebook, “How to Make Better Decisions in Three Steps” for some additional ideas on how to strengthen your decision-making skills at https://forms.aweber.com/form/56/1109658656.htm